BSR Climate Scenarios 2025

May 15, 2025

2024 was the warmest year on record, with a global average surface temperature of more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial records. As climate risks intensify, the need for credible, science-based scenario planning has never been greater.

BSR’s climate scenario narratives draw on a range of temperature pathways and integrated climate-economic models to evaluate both physical and transition risks. Our decade-by-decade assessments help organizations translate complex climate data into actionable insights, supporting more transparent climate risk disclosures and more resilient, forward-looking business strategies. By aligning with the global transition to a low-carbon economy, companies can not only mitigate risk but also unlock emerging strategic opportunities.

Explore the Scenarios

Standardizing Data Collection on Forced Labor: Benchmark of Practices and Gap Analysis Governments as Intermediaries of Forced Labor Data

Standardizing Data Collection on Forced Labor: Benchmark of Practices and Gap Analysis Governments as Intermediaries of Forced Labor Data

Standardizing Data Collection on Forced Labor: Benchmark of Practices and Gap Analysis Governments as Intermediaries of Forced Labor Data

Standardizing Data Collection on Forced Labor: Benchmark of Practices and Gap Analysis Governments as Intermediaries of Forced Labor Data

Taken together, these climate scenarios provide critical foresight for business leaders navigating an increasingly complex risk landscape.

BSR’s updated Climate Scenario Analysis incorporates the latest NGFS 2024 (Phase V) data, including the newly introduced Fragmented World scenario. This scenario reflects a growing risk: a future where global climate action falters amid divergent national policies and weak international coordination. Under such conditions, both physical and transition risks accelerate, driven by policy uncertainty and delayed mitigation. The key set of four scenarios has also been revised with updated emissions trajectories, delivering a more precise view of global decarbonization pathways and their implications for business.

Crucially, the analysis reveals that physical climate risks steadily intensify through the mid-2030s across all pathways. After that point, the scenarios begin to diverge sharply, underscoring the long-term consequences of choices made today. Early and decisive action may involve upfront transition costs, especially in the Net Zero scenario, but the alternative—reactive and disorderly transitions under Delayed Transition or Fragmented World—carries far greater risks for both markets and society.

Download the Scenarios

Ameer Azim

Director, Climate and Nature

Washington, D.C.

Director, Climate and Nature

Washington, D.C.

Ameer leads BSR’s climate work in the US and works closely with BSR’s Technology sector companies.

Ameer helps BSR members develop strategies to implement the recommendations of the Task Force on Climate-Related Financial Disclosures (TCFD) and enhance business resilience through climate risk assessment using climate scenario analysis and planning. He also works with BSR member companies on developing resilient and sustainable value chains.

Ameer was previously working with BSR’s Financial Services sector companies and led the Business Alliance to Scale Climate Solutions, a BSR carbon markets collaborative initiative now known as the Beyond Alliance.

Prior to joining BSR, Ameer was the chief financial economist at Climate Advisers Trust and Orbitas, where he conducted research on climate scenario analysis and financial research for the agriculture, forestry, and other land use (AFOLU) sector and engaged institutional investors on deforestation risks in investment portfolios. Ameer also brings over a decade of capital markets experience at financial institutions like ABN Amro, Citi, and Barclays Bank.

Ameer holds a MS in Sustainability Management from Columbia University and a BA in Economics and Government from College of William and Mary

Lucia Dardis

Associate, Climate and Nature

New York

Associate, Climate and Nature

New York

Lucia supports members across industries on climate change and nature, including climate scenario analysis, peer benchmarking, sustainability management, and data analysis.

Previously, Lucia interned at the World Wildlife Fund-US as an Agricultural Sustainability Analyst. There, she researched agro-commodity and bioplastic feedstock supply chain risks. At Evergrade, Inc., Lucia was a Consultant and Intern Manager focused on people and project management, data architecture and analysis, and environmental impact research. Through her coursework at UC Berkeley, Lucia was a Sustainability Consultant with the Clorox Company and a Data Science Research Apprentice for the CoolClimate Network, where she collaborated on a quantitative methodology for assessing the greenhouse gas reduction potential of carbon credits.

Lucia studied business administration and data science at the Haas School of Business at the University of California, Berkeley. She completed a semester exchange at the Universitat de Barcelona, where she studied international marketing and corporate finance.

Travis Osland portrait

Travis Osland

Former Associate, Technology Sectors, BSR

Associate, Technology Sectors

San Francisco

Travis supports BSR member companies across various industries, focusing on sustainability management and climate change.

Prior to joining BSR, Travis was a Climate Corps Fellow with the City of San Rafael, where he helped the City advance its Zero Waste goals and develop a plan for creating a more sustainable, inclusive, and resilient local economy. Previously, he worked at the Center for Food Innovation and Entrepreneurship where he performed research funded by WWF in the areas of on-farm food loss and produce donation.

Travis holds a MS in the emerging field of Biomimicry from Arizona State University and a BS in Environmental Science from Santa Clara University.